Sectoral Carbon Dioxide Reduction Potential of Non-State Actors

Abstract

After the COP21 negotiations in Paris (UNFCCC (COP), 2016), individual countries began to assess their Non-State actor (Clapham, 2009) contribution, and some countries are far ahead of others (e.g. City Action Plans). The process to reach a final, unconditional contribution of the UNFCCC countries that participated at COP21 will take years, and there is no general guideline or approach yet. Non-State actors can strongly influence the reduction of carbon emissions according to the Institute for Environmental Studies (Wiederberg & Pattberg, 2015). Strong agreements amongst scholars exist, that cities are responsible for approximately 75-80 percent of the global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (Satterthwaite, 2008). Past surveys have shown that electricity and heat conversions have the highest proportion of the total carbon dioxide (CO2) emission from cities (IEA, 2015). Another significant share is the transportation sector, particularly combustion engines (Wolpe & Reddy, 2015). With a growing demand for electricity and an increasing population growth, cities are facing profound challenges in carbon dioxide mitigation (Gouldson, Colenbrander, & Sudmant, 2015).

This thesis will develop a general model to estimate Non-State actors’ contribution for the potential carbon reduction according the climate targets of COP21.The structure of this analysis is divided into two parts:

First, a database for sectoral emission is established and second, a projection model for cities is generated.

In the first section, the research will examine the largest cities in the greatest carbon emission contributors among developed countries as well as heavily populated cities in these countries ((C40, 2016); (ESA, 2015)), based on the IMF definition (IMF, 2011), considering the entire spectrum. For each city, there are various sectors which contribute to carbon emissions. This inquiry will thus focus on electricity generation and transportation, which both represent a considerable contribution of carbon dioxide pollution in cities (CAR, 2014). As a first step, there will be an investigation to gather information from recent literature about the proportional contribution of carbon dioxide emissions for different sectors of these cities in question (Kennedy, Steinberger, & Gasson, 2009). Thus, the sectoral contribution will be the firstfocus of this study. This city database will be based on recent literature and research in that field. The second focus will attempt to project future carbon dioxide emissions and the potential for reducing those future emissions within these sectors. Another focus will be on the various development levels of the considered countries (IMF, 2011). Cities in developed countries have disparate prospects for future mitigation projections compared to cities in developing countries. This discrepancy will create various scenarios for future projections. In order to better justify the predictions, indicators such as population growth, the increase of income, and GDP will be added to evaluate the dependencies and typologies between cities. Initially, developed countries (DC), newly industrialized countries, (NIC) and developing countries (NDC) (Upadhyaya, 2013) will be subdivided. The research then will highlight the cities which have the highest future potential for carbon emissions reduction for a sectoral contribution.

Recapitulating, the analysis will focus on the current contribution and potential reductions for carbon dioxide emissions from Non-State actors globally. Therefore, a database of sectoral emissions will be provided, supplemented by correlation coefficients from a linear regression model. In addition, a projection for the future carbon emissions and the potential for reduction in these sectors will be established. The results can be applied more broadly to arrive at a whole spectrum of different development levels for cities in different countries.