Potentials and barriers for building materials in Switzerland under different future scenarios

Abstract

The building sector has not only far-reaching environmental, economic, and social impacts, but also a greater leverage in reducing the human ecological footprint than any other major industrial sector in the short term. That is why building materials are under pressure to ever-changing framework conditions. The main goal in this thesis is to analyse potentials and barriers of building materials in Switzerland under different future scenarios using the methodology of scenario analysis. Semi-structured expert interviews (N=12) were conducted to obtain data for the development of four scenarios how the building sector might unfold in the future, and to obtain data for the selection of building materials that remain or might become more important. An expert workshop (N=7) was organised to discuss potentials and barriers of these building materials under developed scenarios. Results not only reveal information about robustness of a building material, but also about specific leverage points to efficiently influence impacts from future building. It is argued for a diversity and flexibility of building materials to deal with future requirements. However, to exploit the full sustainability potential of a material, positive impacts from materials on society and environment have to be taken into consideration for the development of building materials. This would contribute not only to a robust building sector, but also to a robust global system.